THE 2008 U.S. ELECTION: THE MENA REPORT

New Citizens Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election

2008-12-02T19:22:00.000-08:00

According to the CNN Exit Poll conducted on November 4th, 11 percent of the voters in the 2008 presidential election were first-time voters, and 69 percent of them voted for Barack Obama. Data like those are showed in the Web site "New Citizen Vote" that I and Nick Acosta produced as our final project for the USF St. Petersburg Media Convergence Class.
The Web site explores the impact of the new citizen vote in the 2008 Presidential election, and provides a slide show-story that shows the feelings of becoming a U.S. citizen and participating in the historic political process in 2008. The Web site also offers info graphics with some data that confirms the importance of the new citizen vote for U.S. politics.

Latinos voted for Obama over McCain by a margin of two-to-one

2008-11-15T19:31:00.000-08:00

A recent analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center of exit polls from Edison Media Research as published by CNN reveals that the Latino vote was in favor of Barack Obama by a margin of more than two-to-one in the 2008 presidential election. Obama got 67% of the Latino vote, while McCain received a 31%.
The Center's analysis also finds that 9% of the electorate was Latino, up from 8% in 2004. "Obama carried the Latino vote by sizeable margins in all states with large Latino populations. His biggest breakthrough came in Florida, where he won 57% of the Latino vote in a state where Latinos have historically supported Republican presidential candidates (President Bush carried 56% of the Latino vote in Florida in 2004). Obama’s margins were much larger in other states with big Latino populations. He carried 78% of the Latino vote in New Jersey, 76% in Nevada, and 74% in California," says the report.

Barack Obama Makes History

2008-11-05T07:07:00.000-08:00

On November 4th 2008, Barack Obama was elected the 44th president of the United States. He is the first African-American to win a presidential election in the history of the country.

Here the presidential acceptance speech (part 1 and part 2)

The presidential election results can be found here at the New York Times and Politico.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

http://www.politico.com/electionmap2008/index.html

The front pages of several newspapers announcing the historical victory of Obama are collected by Poynter Online.

http://www.poynter.org/column.asp?id=49&aid=153338

A projection of the 2008 presidential election results

2008-11-04T07:30:00.000-08:00

The last February, I did the following projection of the 2008 presidential election results as part of an assignment for the Road to White House class at the University of South Florida, St. Petersburg. I publish this projection on this blog today when millions of people are voting and producing a record turnout. Let's see at the end of the day to what extent my projection was close to the final results. To do the projection I went to the Web site www.270towin.com.

My projection predicted the victory of Barack Obama, and pointed out that twelve states registered small margins of difference between the Republican and Democratic candidates in the 2004 presidential election. Those were the three swing states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, and the following nine states: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In states like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida, the strong presence of Latino voters will be decisive for the final result in the 2008 election.

According to my projection, Obama would reach 316 votes in the Electoral College, winning in the following states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District Of Columbia, Florida,Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. Let'see what happens.

2008 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

Obama and McCain latest ads in Spanish

2008-10-29T19:54:00.000-07:00

The last week of the presidential campaign is full with TV ads in Spanish destined to get the Latino vote. An Obama TV ad that appears in Florida even shows the candidate speaking the whole ad in Spanish. On the other hand, the McCain TV ad in Spanish that appears in Florida attacks his opponent on issues like abortion and taxes. In Florida, according to the polls, there is a dead even. Here the Obama ad:

Centro Tampa publishes a look to the Latino vote

2008-10-16T14:40:00.000-07:00

The Hispanic newspaper Centro Tampa publishes today the slide show "A Look to the Latino Vote in Tampa," which I produced days ago as an account of the Latino perspective about the importance of the Hispanic vote in the current presidential election.

According to the latest polls, the race between Obama and McCain is dead even. As the slide show confirms, some Latinos there are still undecided, so their vote could be crucial for the final result in the state.

Centro Tampa is owned by Media General, which publishes The Tampa Tribune. Here the slide show:

PBS documentary explores the Latino vote

2008-10-09T07:51:00.000-07:00

Latinos '08 is a PBS documentary that explores the crucial role of the Latino vote in the 2008 presidential election. "This documentary will examine how today’s candidates and advocacy groups are trying to mobilize and attract this unpredictable group of voters," says a PBS press release about the documentary, which was aired for first time this Wednesday October 8th. The documentary challenges the idea that the Latino population in the United States is a monolithic group.

The Web page of the film, in addition to trailers and photos, includes several infographics that show Latino voting trends in aspects such as voting age, Latino voting patterns, population percentages, voter registration and voter turnout rates. Definitely, a very useful information.

Ya Es Hora, Ve y Vota, a massive Latino voter registration campaign

2008-09-29T07:23:00.000-07:00

A multi-state voter registration campaign, called Ya Es Hora, Ve y Vota has been launched to target one million potential Hispanic voters in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas. The national effort is led by Entravision Communications, ImpreMedia, Mi Familia Vota Educational Fund, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund, NCLR, and Univision Communications Inc.

New TV and radio Obama ads in four key states with big Latino population

2008-09-24T07:36:00.000-07:00

The Barack Obama campaign have launched new TV and radio ads in Florida, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, states where their big Latino population could be decisive for the final electoral result in those states and in the country.

Both ads focuses on economy and criticize the McCain approach to that issue. The TV ad says in Spanish: "For the thousands of parents who are left unemployed, for all the families at risk of losing their homes, for each child of the 45 million people who don't have health insurance, how is it possible that John McCain could opine, 'The fundamentals of our economy are strong'? Perhaps John McCain and the Republicans don't want to preoccupy themselves with the prosperity of our families. But for us, there's no greater obligation."

The Florida version of Obama radio ad(click ) says: "John McCain and the Republicans have no clue about the struggles of the middle class and working people. We have the highest unemployment in Florida in 13 years. Forty-five million people are without health insurance. Nine thousand five hundred homes are being foreclosed every day. In Florida, 1,400 families lose their homes on a daily basis. But John McCain and Republicans want to continue George Bush's same failed policies that led us to this collapse. How can McCain and the Republicans fix our economy if they don't know it's broken?"

According to an article published by the Washington Post, the new Obama radio ad will be aired on Spanish-language stations in Northern Virginia, "home to a growing Latino population that Democrats hope can help them win the state's electoral votes for the first time since 1964."

Now the McCain effort to paint Obama as "celebrity" is in a new Spanish radio ad

2008-08-13T13:48:00.000-07:00

The John McCain campaign has launched a new Spanish radio ad that insist on painting Obama as "popular" and "celebridad." The ad says "No hay duda que Barack Obama es alguien popular, una celebridad que dice lo indicado, pero ¿hará lo correcto?"

The Latino vote of the I-4 corridor in Florida will be a decisive factor

2008-08-11T11:52:00.000-07:00

Here a news story that I wrote for El Diario, which is based in New York, related to the growing Latino vote of the I-4 corridor in Florida. It is clear that those Latino votes will be significant for the final result in the state.

Big battle for the Latino vote: McCain launches new ad saying that Obama ignores Latin America

2008-08-04T15:52:00.000-07:00

McCain paints Obama as celebrity. Here the tv ad and the Obama's response

2008-07-31T14:59:00.000-07:00

The Latino vote is a challenge for Obama

2008-06-09T09:57:00.000-07:00

The Democratic nominee Barack Obama will have to develop a strong strategic to appeal the Latino vote, which was in general in favor of Hillary Clinton during the primary season. The first steps in this purpose have been successful. The mayor of Los Angeles, Antonio Villaraigosa, who served as the Hillary Clinton campaign's national co-chair, working hard for her during primaries in California, Nevada and Texas, now is backing Obama, and days ago told CNN: "I am excited about Barack Obama," as says an article published by Los Angeles Times.

However, as Andres Oppenheimer writes for The Miami Herald, to reach the Latino vote will not be easy for Obama. "Clinton beat Obama among Hispanics by 73 to 27 percent in New York, by 69 to 30 percent in California, by 68 to 32 percent in Texas, by 70 to 30 percent in New Jersey, and by 61 to 35 percent in Florida. Obama beat Clinton among Hispanics in his home state of Illinois and others, but they were few and far between," says Oppenheimer.

It is important to remember that other Latino political leader, the Governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, is backing Obama. It seems clear that at the end Obama will have more Latino votes than McCain, the real question is in what percentage.

Latino music starts produce video supporting Obama

2008-06-02T14:15:00.000-07:00

Alejandro Sanz, Don Omar, Paulina Rubio, John Leguizamo, Kate del Castillo, Jessica Alba, George Lopez, Voltio and Andres Levin, among other artists, have produced the following Spanish-language video in favor of the presidential candidate Barack Obama.

The video says that president Bush won the 2004 election by roughly 3.5 million voters, but 8 million Hispanics who were eligible to vote did not. "Your vote makes the difference," the video says.

Will Obama be able to get, during the general election in November, the Latino backing that Hillary Clinton has received?

Here the video:

John McCain launches Spanish Web site

2008-05-17T17:02:00.000-07:00

While Democrats are still trying to define their nominee, the Republican John McCain is developing several tactics to reach the Latino vote. The past week, McCain launched his Spanish Web site http://www.johnmccain.com/espanol/ The Web site includes strong messages related to the McCain's promise to improve the economical situation of Latinos.
As an article published by Reuters mentions, asked about the Spanish Web site and the Latino support for his candidacy, McCain pointed out that "everything about our Hispanic voters is tailor-made to the Republican message... I am confident that I will do very well...I know their patriotism, I know the respect for the family, the advocacy for pro-life, I know the small business aspect of our Hispanic voters."
Traditionally, Latinos in general have backed Democratic candidates in presidential election. Despite of that, the current president George W. Bush reached in 2004 about 40 percent of the Latino vote. Will McCain reach a similar percentage?

The Latino vote made a difference in Texas

2008-03-06T14:01:00.000-08:00

The Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has a lot of reasons to be grateful for the Latino vote that she received in Texas, the last March 4. According to the polls, a third of all voters in the Democratic primary were Latinos, and the Hispanic vote got 66 percent over 32 percent received by Barack Obama.

An article published by The Dallas Morning News says that the Latino turnout for the last Texas primary was a record, and cites Lydia Camarillo, vice president of Southwest Voter Registration Education Project saying that "Hillary was clearly a beneficiary of the affection that Latinos, especially older ones, have for both her and President Clinton." That confirms the tendency that it was referred in the last post of this blog about the generational gap that this campaign has produced in the traditionally Democratic Party vote of Latinos.

However the most important aspect is the strength and significance that the Latino vote is going to have for the general election. The Republican candidate, John McCain, received support of several Latinos in Florida thanks to his more open proposal about immigration. So it seems that he would try to take the Latinos votes as much as he can in the general election, although the U.S. presidential elections in the history has shown a clear Latino preference for a Democratic candidate in states like California, Texas, Nevada, and New Mexico.

Veronica Vargas of the LBJ School of Government at the University of Texas said to The Dallas Morning News that "the Texas primary allowed Latinos to see themselves as a political powerhouse at last. And the political parties won't be able to take the Latino vote for granted".

That is the reason why in the Democratic primary both candidates spent a lot of money in ads that tried to get the Latino vote.

The Latino vote in Texas: A decisive factor

2008-02-27T10:04:00.000-08:00

The Democratic primary in Texas, this Tuesday March 4, is very important for the electoral aspirations of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The polls show a very competitive race, where itb is unquestionable that the Latino vote will be a decisive factor.

According to a recent poll done by CNN/Opinion Research Corp, Clinton and Obama are in a statistical dead heat in Texas. Obama has more support from blacks, "nearly eight in 10 blacks," while "Clinton may win roughly two-thirds of the Latino vote." However, CNN says that "Obama's huge lead among blacks -- plus a noticeable chunk of the Latino vote -- tends to counteract" the tie.

How to explain the Latino vote in Texas? An article of the Los Angeles Times points out that there could be generational division in the vote behavior between Democratic Latinos. The newspaper refers that "father-son splits have emerged in two prominent Latino families."

"The Houston Chronicle noted over the weekend that while Hillary Clinton can claim the support of U.S. Rep. Solomon Ortiz and state Sen. Eddie Lucio -- both longtime officeholders -- Barack Obama has the backing of state Reps. Solomon Ortiz Jr. and Eddie Lucio III .The story was one of several recent pieces spotlighting the generational divide within the Latino vote in Texas, which apparently is one of the key reasons Clinton's once-large lead in the state has vanished," says the newspaper.

According to The Pew Hispanic Center, of the 3.6 million Latinos eligible to vote in Texas, 31% are between the ages of 18 and 29.

There are other generational splits in the Latino vote in the country?

The McCain story produces a huge discussion about journalism

2008-02-22T18:06:00.000-08:00

The New York Times article published the last Feb. 21 about several decisions by Senator John McCain that show, according to the newspaper, doubts related to his judgment over potential conflicts of interests, and the newspaper´s reference about an inappropriate relation between McCain and a lobbyist have produced an intense discussion about a lot of journalistic principles and practices.

The New York Times received after the publication of the article more than 2,000 comments, many of them criticizing the handling of the article, and more than 4,000 questions by e-mail. In addition, the newspaper´s coverage and behavior has been subject of analysis in several media and journalistic organizations. Here some thoughts:

The New York Times, Jill Abramson, managing editor

"It is always preferable to have named sources in stories. In 2003, The Times appointed a standards editor to the masthead, and tightened its standards for anonymous sourcing in 2004. In the case of our McCain story, Times standards were followed and senior editors knew the identities of the sources for the story, who provided detailed and consistent accounts about their concerns about the senator's relationship with a Washington lobbyist. On many important stories, especially on controversies involving Washington politics and policy battles, sources request anonymity for different reasons...."

"The sources corroborated one another without orchestration, an issue, among others, that our team meticulously investigated. During the long process of our reporting on the story, we attempted, time and time again, to persuade our sources to go on the record and let us use their names. Again, there are named sources in the story but some sources continued to insist on maintaining the cloak of anonymity. As we neared publication, both the editors and the reporting team once again tested the veracity of these sources to make sure every fact in the story was accurate..."

The New York Times, Richard W. Stevenson, political editor

"...the news department of The Times and the editorial page are totally separate operations that do not consult or coordinate when it comes to news coverage and endorsements or other expressions of editorial opinion. We in the newsroom did not speak to anyone at the editorial page about the story we were working on about Senator McCain. They did not consult us about their deliberations over endorsements of the presidential candidates. I’m the political editor, and the first I knew of the McCain endorsement (and of the endorsement of Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side) was when I read them in the newspaper..."

"... I think it’s fair to say that most of our political reporters would prefer that the paper not endorse candidates. Endorsements inevitably create the perception among some voters that The Times is backing a candidate on an institutional level, leaving those of us on the news side to explain over and over that our coverage is not influenced by what our colleagues on the editorial page write..."

The New York Times, Bill Keller, executive editor

"Lots of questions and lots of the comments posted with the story concerned timing. Why NOW? Why not sooner? Why not later? Similar questions often arise when we publish sensitive stories during an election season. If we publish on the eve of a big vote, some will accuse us of a "sneak attack" or "ambush." If we hold off, for whatever reason, conspiracy theorists will impute other motives — we didn't want to hurt the candidate, or we were threatened in some way, or we wimped out. I can't say this often enough. We publish stories when they are ready..."

The Poynter Institute, Bob Steele, The Nelson Poynter Scholar for Journalism Values

"The New York Times had the obligation to apply rigorous, exacting, substantive standards of reporting, editing and ethics on the McCain story. Times' editors clearly believed this story was important, given its strong play and length. The Times could have and should have given readers more information about why and how they developed, reported, vetted and edited this story. They should have revealed proactively the story behind the story. They should have better explained the decision to use some unnamed sources, better explained the timing of the publication.

The Times should have offered a better account of the rigor behind the story. They shouldn't have waited until critics started firing machine guns. It appears defensive rather than legitimately justifying the journalism."

The Poynter Institute, Keith M. Woods, Dean of Faculty

"The Times should have answered that question at the same moment it raised questions about McCain's marital fidelity and political fealty. What does it take, really? A few paragraphs that explain the reporting process; a few words that tell readers how many phone calls, private conversations, e-mails -- years -- it took to nail this story down."

Washington Week and the Obama momentum

2008-02-17T11:35:00.000-08:00

The last Friday, February 15, I had the opportunity to be present during the taping of Washington Week, the public affairs program that the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) has run for 40 years. The program was produced in the Mahaffey Theater, in St. Petersburg, Florida, and, with several USF classmates, I shared a few moments before and after the show with Gwen Ifill, moderator of the program since 1999, and the production team.

The theater was almost filled to see the program. Most of the audience was from Florida, but there were also a big number of people from New York, Chicago, and California, that used to stay the winter in the Floridian weather.

The discussion about the current nomination process, with the participation of Jim Barnes, National Journal; Gloria Borger, CNN, US News; Jeanne Cummings, Politico; and Todd Purdum, Vanity Fair, focused especially on the so-called Obama momentum, after his important victories in the Potomac primaries and his current leader position in the number of delegates in the Democratic contest.

The panelist analyzed the recent union endorsements received by Obama, his options to win over John McCain in the general election, and the tactics that Hillary Clinton can use to stop his success. It was clear that she will try to get victories in primaries still ahead in Ohio and Texas. In addition, it was mentioned how could help Clinton a revision of the Democratic Party decision about sanctioning Florida and Michigan for changing their primaries dates.

While I was listening to the discussion and the interesting questions of the public in the theater, which is available at the Washington Week website, I remembered with my classmate Danita Moutaki the commentary that I told her when both were in New Hampshire, the past January. "Analyzing the political landscape, it seems that Barack Obama will be the next president of this country." Let me know if I am wrong.

Super Tuesday: A lesson for the media

2008-02-09T15:55:00.000-08:00

The victory of Mike Huckabee in five states on Super Tuesday contests means an important lesson for the media. During the days and hours before the Super Tuesday, several media, specially national TV stations, decided to almost erase Huckabee of its journalistic considerations. MSNBC, for example, produced a survey asking its audience to chose a possible final contest between Clinton vs. McCain, or Clinton vs. Romney, or Obama vs. McCain, or Obama vs. Romney. The name of Mr. Huckabee simply disappeared.

Likewise, the CNN Republican debate in California focus its main attention on the candidates McCain and Romney in a way that provoked continuous protests of Huckabee. Other media, like some newspapers, followed the same trend. They wanted a two-man contest in the Republican race, alike to the situation in the Democratic side. They put out of the competition to Huckabee in terms of its coverage. And their decision was made before the real voters were to the polls.

The national polls also were more concentrated in the results related to McCain and Romney, and, in general, failed to anticipate the Huckabee's results . Thus, the Super Tuesday night, the media said that the victories of Huckabee were a big surprise.

Is it the role of the media to decide for the voters? What do several media have to say to the Huckabee's voters in Iowa, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Kansas, states where this candidate got a victory in the primary season, about their putting to Huckabee in an anticipate way out of competition?

Today, when Romney is out of the race, and after the Huckabee's big win in Kansas, is still clear that John McCain has the first option to win the nomination. It is so difficult that McCain finally lose the Republican race. However, the ethical responsibility of the media is paying attention to all the principal candidates.

One of the Guiding Principles for the Journalist, according to Bob Steele, Nelson Poynter Scholar for Journalism Values, at Poynter Institute, is "seek truth and report it as fully as possible." That will be always a good lesson for journalists.

"Tsunami Tuesday" : An offensive term?

2008-02-01T08:28:00.000-08:00

The Poynter Institute published on its Web site, blog E-Media Tidbits, a post that refers the criticism against the use of the term "Tsunami Tuesday" to describe next Tuesday's multi-state primary elections. During the next Tuesday -most commonly called "Super Tuesday" - more than 20 states will have their primaries, and the result of that day could be decisive for the Democratic and Republican contests.

The Poynter's article comments the opinion of the Columbia University's professor, Sree Sreenivasan, who says that "some folks in the press are calling it "Tsunami Tuesday" in reference to the huge wave of major results about to come. Something in the back of my head makes me uneasy about that term, which has gained popularity only this presidential cycle, the first since the Asian/South Asian tsunami of 2004. It seems to be a term that's in bad taste, at the very least, considering almost 300,000 people perished in that tsunami. Am I being too PC?"

Sreenivasan adds: "Because the 2004 tsunami and its aftermath happened so far away in time and distance, and so few U.S. political reporters were touched by it, I am not surprised that the term "Tsunami Tuesday" has gained credence (showing up in headline after headline and repeatedly on newscasts and talk shows). But we know that for journalists, every word counts. Why should it be different for this one?"

Steve Outing, writing for Poynter Online, agree with the Columbia's professor.

"Am I being overly sensitive? I don't think so. The Asian tsunami of December 2004 claimed more than 200,000 lives. Making light of it and comparing that immense tragedy to a political event is incredibly insensitive and offensive. Yet already mainstream media has embraced it... I'm persuaded by a couple of Sreenivasan's examples of similar phrases we wouldn't use: "Would we call Giuliani's drop in the polls his 'Ground Zero Plummet'?" and "We'd never say, 'Rudy's campaign fell like the twin towers.'"

The comments to the Poynter's article show an useful debate about this topic. "I see a huge difference between reference to a tsunami and an act of terrorism. Both may cause terrible suffering, but one is an act of nature, the other a human evil. The University of Miami Hurricanes did not change their names after Hurricane Andrew destroyed a big piece of their neighborhood. I'm not advocating use of tsunami, nor condemning it. It is important to have this discussion in a newsroom before deciding whether sensitivities are too raw from the disaster in Southeast Asia," says Poynter Faculty, Roy Peter Clark.

I think that "Tsunami Tuesday" refers to an act of nature and not to a specific tragedy in a specific place. People use terms as "avalanche of votes" or "flood of ideas". However, it is always very important for journalists to take time to think about the effects of their words. What do you think?

Florida primary: Immigration was an important factor in the final result

2008-01-30T08:15:00.000-08:00

The positions that the candidates took about immigration represented a significant factor in the Florida primary, where the winners were John Mc Canin, in the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton, in the Democratic contest.

An article published by The New York Times points out that an exit poll conducted throughout the state by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool found that 16 percent of Republican voters mentioned immigration as the most important issue in exit polls. The article says: “Four in 10 Republican voters said illegal immigrants working in the United States should be deported, while about 3 in 10 said they should be allowed to stay as temporary workers, and the same number said they should be offered a chance to apply for citizenship. Mr. McCain was supported by a plurality of those who favored citizenship, and Mr. Romney by those who favored deportation.”

About the Latino vote, the news story refers that “Hispanics, who made up more than one-tenth of the Republican voters, said they were more inclined to favor a guest-worker program over deportation. Forty-three percent of them said illegal immigrants should be allowed to remain in the United States as temporary workers, while one-third said they should be offered the opportunity to apply for citizenship. Only one-fifth of Hispanic Republicans said they favored deporting illegal immigrants.”

McCain showed during the Florida campaign the endorsement to his campaign by the Hispanic Senator Mel Martinez. According to The New York Times, “Mr. McCain, who last spring supported the immigration proposal that would have created a guest-worker program and a path toward citizenship for illegal immigrants, won roughly half the Hispanic vote. Mr. Giuliani, who strongly courted Cuban-Americans in the Miami area, won about one-quarter of the Hispanic vote, and Mr. Romney, who took the hardest line on illegal immigration, finished a distant third.”

But, the Florida primary not only proclaimed as winners to John McCain and Hillary Clinton, it also produced the exit of two candidates. Today, the republican Rudy Giuliani will announce his decision to drop out. The same action will take today the democratic candidate John Edwards. So, there are only two Democratic candidates in the race: Clinton and Obama, and three Republican candidates with option to win the nomination: John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney.

The Florida primary convenes today hundreds of Latinos

2008-01-29T09:38:00.000-08:00

Florida, where Latinos are a 19 percent of the population, develops today its primary, getting a big national attention despite the fact that both parties, Republican and Democratic, have sanctioned this state for moving ahead the primary of Feb. 5 without authorization. The winner in the Republican site will have 57 delegates (the half of the initial number of delegates assigned to Florida), while who win in the Democratic contest will have 0 delegates, but an important input for his or her campaign.

In this context, hundreds of Latinos are arriving during this day to polling stations, specially in Miami and Tampa Bay areas. Historically, Cubans in Florida have supported Republican candidates, however the increasing presence in Florida of Latinos from different nations, especially the more than 500 000 Puerto Ricans living in the state, and the development of new more liberal generations in Cuban populations in Florida constitute a great opportunity to the Democratic Party.

Candidates of both parties have tried to take advantage of that. An article of the USA Today refers the Republican contenders efforts to get the Cuban-American vote: "Sunday, Mike Huckabee knocked back a Cuban coffee in Miami's Little Havana with his most prominent Cuban supporter, Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. Suit-and-tie wearing Mitt Romney donned a guayabera, the Cuban traditional men's shirt, at an event in the same neighborhood. Sen. John McCain, who reminisces about being on an aircraft carrier in the Caribbean during the Cuban missile crisis, won the support Friday of the state's highest-ranking Hispanic elected official, Sen. Mel Martinez".

In addition, Romney and Rudy Giuliani are running ads in Spanish in Florida, which I have posted in this blog, even as they argue that immigrants must speak English to become citizens.

About the contests for the Latino vote in the corridor between Tampa and Orlando, known as the I-4 corridor, the same article says: "The Florida belt between Tampa and Orlando, known as the I-4 corridor for the interstate that links the cities, is Republican territory, heavily traveled by the four GOP candidates competing in Tuesday's primary. Although Miami's Little Havana is a bastion of Cuban-American Republicans, Hispanics in Central Florida are more diverse, geographically and politically. Among the Hispanics living in the Tampa-Orlando area, about 40% are Puerto Rican, and 21% area Mexican-American. The voting trend here is toward Democrats."

Obama gets big victory in South Carolina and launches new Spanish-language TV ad

2008-01-26T17:55:00.000-08:00

The victory of Barack Obama in South Carolina has been overwhelming. Obama got a 56 percent of the votes over 27 percent obtained by Hillary Clinton. "We are looking for a change of the state quo in Washington," said Obama in his victory speech in Columbia, South Carolina. That result maintains the Democratic race very competitive and increases the expectation for the called Super Tuesday, this February 5th, where more than 20 states have their primaries.

This Tuesday, January 29th, it will be the Florida primary for Democratic and Republican contests. The Democratic Party stripped Florida of all its delegates to the national convention because it moved ahead the primary of Feb. 5 without permission. However, the result in Florida will have its influence in the race.

While Obama's supporters celebrates their victory, the Obama's campaign have launched a new Spanish-language TV ad in California, where Latinos are a 35 percent of the population. The ad says to Latinos: "Now this is your country. Don’t let anyone or anything take away those dreams."

This is the ad, and its translation obtained of the Obama's Web site.

VO: Do you remember the dream that brought you or your parents to this country?

BO: Hope -- hope is what led me here today. With a father from Kenya, a mother from Kansas and a story that could only happen in the United States of America. (00:11)

VO: Now this is your country. Don’t let anyone or anything take away those dreams. (hopes, dreams, promise)

BO: We are choosing hope over fear. (00:11)

VO: You’re not alone. We’re millions. Ordinary people, cooks, construction workers, professionals, heads of house, who together can believe with Barack Obama that we can indeed do extraordinary things. That we can bring peace and leave a better world for our children and that we can create a just and United America.

BO: In this election -- in this moment -- let us reach for what we know is possible. A nation healed. A world repaired. An America that believes again. (00:15)

LOGO, BO’S PIC, PHONE & SUPER: (El 19 de enero, haz caucus por Barack Obama.)

BO: I’m Barack Obama and I approve this message.

The Latino influence in the primary season: Nevada and Florida

2008-01-21T13:19:00.000-08:00

The road to the White House, in the current primary season, has began to show the influence of Latinos in the process. The U.S. Census Bureau's updated data (2006), point to a 14.8 Hispanic percentage -more than 44 million people- living in this country. The Republican and Democratic candidates have recognized the fact that in a very competitive race, the influence of Latino voters could be decisive.
In Nevada the Latino vote was significant for the Hillary Clinton's victory. According to an article of the Washington Post, "Clinton won almost every casino site and dominated among women and Latino voters." I recommend to read that article, where even there is a projection about the Hispanic support for the next primaries. "The Nevada results contained some worrisome signs for Obama along demographic lines. The heavy support that Clinton won among Hispanics suggested that he could face an uphill climb to win that important group in California, New York and New Jersey, the three most populous states with primaries on Feb. 5."
At this moment, after the victory of Hillary Clinton in Nevada, and, in the Republican side, the first places of John McCain in South Carolina, and Mitt Romney in Nevada, the attention is focused on Florida, where the primaries will be the next January 29.
Here, in Florida, the presence of Latinos is significant. According to the U.S. Census Bureau (2005), there is a 19.5 percent of Latino population in the Sunshine State. The influence of Cuban-Americans, who historically have supported the Republican Party, is considerable. John McCain has received the support of several Cuban leaders.
Other Republican candidates have also tried to reached the Latino support. Rudy Giuliani, who has been campaigning in Florida for several weeks -48 days in total until now-, had the last week a meeting with one of the main Spanish language churches in Miami. Mike Huckabee is trying to gain the support of evangelical Christians, who, according to an article of The New York Times, are a 25% of the Republican voters in Florida, some of them Latino voters -despite the fact that the majority of Latinos living in Florida are Catholics-. Finally, Mitt Romney just today released an ad in Spanish, which features narration by Craig Romney, one of Romney’s five sons. Here is that ad, that talks about his record as Governor of Massachusetts and as "a family man". Here is also an ad in Spanish launched by Rudy Giuliani, which refers the plan of this candidate to produce "the largest tax cut in the history of this country".

Winners, momentum and the winnowing effect

2008-01-08T21:14:00.000-08:00

Hillary Clinton and John McCain are the winners of the New Hampshire primary. On the Democratic side, after a competitive race, Barack Obama got the second place, and John Edwards, the third. On the Republican side, behind McCain came Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. The last two days, I have seen the intense political activity of New Hampshire, and, on Election Day, I went to precincts, talked with citizens, and was a witness of their political compromise.

At this point the question is what the effects of the New Hampshire primary could be? I just want to quote two ideas of the scholar Dante J. Scala from his book Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics about momentum and the winnowing effect:

“New Hampshire was no longer simply a test of strength for front runner and contender, it now bestowed strength on candidates who performed well there and fueled the campaign’s efforts in subsequent primaries.”

“Iowa and New Hampshire together, plus the media’s interpretation of those two contests, winnow the field to a front runner and one or, at most, two or three challengers.”

An interview with the mayor of Los Angeles

2008-01-06T20:46:00.000-08:00

Hours before the election day, the activity is intense in campaign offices. Candidates participate in rallies and meetings all over the state. Journalists from several countries report about this political season in New Hampshire while supporters arrive from numerous U.S. cities. In the Hillary Clinton´s office in Nashua a special visit was made by the mayor of Los Angeles, Antonio Villaraigosa.

The Latino mayor gave a speech to supporters that came from New Hampshire, New York, California, Massachusetts, Iowa, and New Jersey. He said that Hillary Clinton is the candidate with more experience between all the contenders, and highlighted her proposal of universal health care.

When he finished his speech, I interviewed him for my Spanish language blog in the newspapers La Opinion, from Los Angeles, and El Diario, from New York. He pointed out that the Hillary´s campaign is national, and not include only Iowa and New Hampshire, but the rest of the states. In fact, he affirmed that in California, the Latino vote will be in favor of Clinton.

Minutes after, the mayor went to the Nashua North School, where hundreds of people attended a Clinton´s rally. In the event, Hillary Clinton insisted on that her experience is the big difference between her and the rest of contenders. She answered several questions of the people about health care, education, war in Iraq, and immigration. About this last point, she said that as president will produce a better control of the boundaries, push to employees to hire only documented immigrants, and talk with the governments of “countries of the south” about this issue.

The last night, Hillary Clinton had received the critics of Barack Obama and John Edwards in the Democratic debate organized in Manchester by ABC and Facebook. The same night, in the Republican debate, Mitt Romney had been the center of the critics. The latest polls say that Obama lead over Clinton, and that in the Republican side John Mc Cain is the frontrunner, followed by Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani.

Only a few hours before the election day in New Hampshire, a lot of undecided citizens have to define their vote as soon as possible.

After Iowa, the U.S. political attention focuses on New Hampshire

2008-01-04T17:07:00.000-08:00

The most intense days of the campaign started today when the candidates arrived to New Hampshire. Almost everybody in the Granite State is talking about politics, the victories in Iowa of Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama and the projection for the primaries in this state. Edwards, Obama y Romney participated in rallies, Hillary Clinton preferred to talk in person with citizens, and Huckabee started his rally playing guitar and affirming that he will have good results during the primary season.

Every candidate is concentrated in New Hampshire, except Giuliani, who has development a risky strategy: forget the race in Iowa and New Hampshire and try to maintain its appeal in states like Florida, where he has been some times in the last days. I think that he is overconfident.

“The Road to the White House” students today were very busy but happy for having the opportunity to see closely to the candidates. Several of them had to leave the hotel before 6 am to prepare rallies for candidates as Clinton and Romney. By 10 am, the class went to the famous The Merrimack Restaurant, the place that has been visited by political personalities like Carter, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, to see a speech of the Democratic candidate, Bill Richardson.

Richardson shook hands with a lot of people in the restaurant and during his speech affirmed that if he win the presidency, he will sign the Kyoto Protocol and become the U.S. in the leader nation for the environmental protection.

The experience of the USF students being close of candidates, phonebanking and working as volunteers every day in campaign offices has been complemented the last days with visits to the New Hampshire Democratic and Republican Parties, and the State House.

Tomorrow Dante Scala, professor of the University of New Hampshire, who wrote the book Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics, will have a meeting with the class. Tomorrow the candidates will participate in several events, and tomorrow ABC and Facebook will produce republican and democratic debates in Manchester. In sum, tomorrow will be a new intense day.

All what you need to know about the New Hampshire primary

2008-01-02T17:02:00.000-08:00

If you visit New Hampshire and want to know everything about the New Hampshire primary, its history and relevance, stop by the New Hampshire Political Library. It has a wonderful material about the first-in-the-nation primary and U.S. politics. At this moment, it is opened a new exhibition presented by the New Hamphire Political Library and the New Hampshire Historical Society titled New Hampshire: A Proven Primary Tradition. That exposition includes almost 300 objects, photographs, videos, documents and archival material of different U.S. electoral campaigns in the history.
According with Lori Fisher, director of programs and collections of the New Hampshire Political Library, the Web site of the library receives an average of one million of visits each month. The students of "The Road to the White House" class enjoyed the visit to the library and take several photos there.
About the race, the media in New Hampshire pay a big attention to the caucuses tomorrow in Iowa. The polls continues giving the victory in Iowa to Obama in the Democratic side and to Huckabee in the Republican side. McCain adn Giuliani today preferred to come to New Hampshire to campaign.

My blog in Spanish language newspapers

2008-01-01T15:21:00.000-08:00

I have written my first posts in my blog at the Spanish language newspapers La Opinion, from Los Angeles, and El Diario, from New York, about the New Hampshire primary. I have received the first comments of the audience and I am very happy for that. During these days in the Granite State I will be in different campaign offices to report for the blog. This Monday I went to the Obama campaign and today I was in the Romney campaign office. I have interviewed several volunteers, a New Hampshire House Representative and I have seen the passion of the supporters. You can see my blog at this address: http://mas.eldiariony.com/elecciones2008

You can also visit the Web sites of those newspapers and see the links to the blog. The address of those media are:

www.laopinion.com
www.eldiariony.com

About the weather, today was an amazing day due to the snow falling on the streets. I have to walk a few minutes over several inches of snow. It has been a wonderful experience for me. With this post, I included a photo with my classmates Scott Burrows outside of a Romney campaign's office in Manchester.

About the campaign, today was a good day for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama. A poll made by the important newspaper Des Moines Register showed results that give the first places to that candidates in Iowa.

By the way, from the snowstorms of New Hampshire I wish you and your families a very happy 2008!!!

Snowstorms and political storms

2007-12-31T11:49:00.001-08:00

The first night in New Hampshire received us with a delicious dinner, a moderate snowstorm and the intensity of the electoral campaign in the media. To see for first time in my life the snow falling has been a wonderful experience for me. The temperature here is around 32° F and, according to the numerous weather broadcasts that appear on TV, it would be a minimum of 7° F for this coming Friday. That is challenging, however with the appropriate clothes it will not be a great problem. Most impressive as well inspirational has been to meet beautiful landscapes with the snow covering houses and trees.

But the storms here are also related with politics. A couple of minutes in front of a TV and you can know how the things are doing in New Hampshire. Several candidates appear in ads that have not been presented in other states of the country, like Florida. Below I collocate for you what I think it is the ad more explanatory of the current situation in the Republican side. It is an ad of candidate Mitt Romney that tries to make a difference -he says a “big difference”- between him and John McCain. This ad shows pretty much how the Republican race is at this moment in the Granite State. According to a recent survey by the American Research Group, Romney and McCain, who has climbed in the past few days, are tied at 30 percent. Mike Huckabbe appears in third place.

The rise of McCain also shows how important could be the support of the media for a candidate. The ads of McCain highlights the endorsements that the candidate has received from important media here, especially newspapers like the Nashua Telegraph, Concorde Monitor, and New Hampshire Union Leader.

On the Democratic side, the statistical dead heat is between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Precisely, this Monday I am in one of the campaign offices of Obama, where I will take notes and report for the blog “New Hampshire for Beginners” of the Spanish language newspapers La Opinion, from Los Angeles, and El Diario, from New York. I will comment you my experience between Obama volunteers in the next post…

An Ecuadorian journalist-USF Graduate student in the New Hampshire primary

2007-12-27T14:25:00.000-08:00

This blog starts a few days before my trip to New Hampshire, home of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, where I will for 10 days. In the Granite State, I will be writing a first-person series of journal entries/observations/news stories, call "New Hampshire for beginners", for the U.S. election Web site of La Opinion, Los Angeles, and El Diario, New York, the biggest Spanish language newspapers in the United States. In addition, I will report for campus news outlets of the University of South Florida (USF), St. Petersburg. This trip is part of a voyage of 20 students of the "Road to the White House" class, who will be led by Professor Judithanne Scourfield McLauchlan, who is, as the class Web site says, "A former White House staffer and veteran of several presidential campaigns who has extensive political experience in New Hampshire." What I have to bring with me to New Hampshire? I hope your suggestions. Until now, I have two bags in mind.

In one bag, I will collocate my background as political journalist for more than 12 years in Ecuador and as Graduate student at the USF, where I am doing a Master program in the Department of Journalism, with an specialization in Political Science. This Spring 2008 is my second semester at USF. The knowledge acquired in the classes that I have taken until now: Media ethics, Journalism in the 21th Century, and the American Presidency, this last one in the Department of Political Science, will be a great resource for me. In addition, this current class, the Road to the White House, includes very good readings and academic instruction about the U.S. presidential election process, with an important emphasis in the New Hampshire primary. The class will discuss topics such as the history of the presidential nominating process, the
national conventions, voter turnout, campaign finance, third party and independent candidates, the electoral college, and the nature of presidential campaigns.

The second bag -this is not an abstract bag- includes several kinds of warm clothes. I have put there boots, coat, hat, gloves, sweaters, jeans, warm socks, and a nice outfit for formal meetings. Do I forget something? Since in Quito, the capital of Ecuador, the minimum cold weather is 50 F, I have never seen the snow on the streets. Visit this blog and go with me to this experience.